As 2012 begins to come onto the horizon,\u00a0 two question will take on increasing importance for Republicans,\u00a0 will Sarah Palin run for President, and possibly more important, can she win.\u00a0\u00a0 The first is really up to Sarah Palin.\u00a0 She is the one that will ultimately make the decision one way or the other. On the will-run side is the fact that she is in a very unique position.\u00a0 People with a far less chance of winning the Presidency than she has, have found the opportunity hard to resist.\u00a0 On the other hand, despite what her critics say, she has shown considerable political savvy, far more than many of her pundit critics, and she may decided that she has more power and influence as a \u201cpotential\u201d candidate, somewhat along the lines of Newt Gingrich in previous years, someone who early on seems to be running but never quite pulls the trigger. \u00a0Finally, she may decide that she is still young, and to wait for 2016 or 2020 or even later. She has the time to wait.<\/p>\n
That brings us to the second, and possibly more important question, can she win?\u00a0 The short answer is: of course she could.\u00a0 This should not be taken to mean that she is by any means a slam dunk, as she could also lose.\u00a0 The first issue is whether or not she is qualified to be president.\u00a0\u00a0 She certainly meets the Constitution\u2019s formal requirements, but does she meet the informal requirements of voters?\u00a0 Here again the answer is yes, at least when compared to past presidents. To see this one has only to look at the current President.<\/p>\n
Obama had been a community organizer who had been elected to state senate, and then was U.S. Senator for less than half a year when he began running for President. He had no executive experience, and before being elected President his political experience had been in winning races where his main opponent had been kept off the ballot, Chicago style.<\/p>\n
Sarah Palin, on the other hand was a successful mayor of a small town, and then went on to become Alaska\u2019s first woman governor and its youngest. As an executive, she has a record of bring spending under control, fighting corruption, and getting things done, all with an approval rating in the 80s. This is what made her a rising star in the party and ultimately brought her to the attention of John McCain.<\/p>\n
In fact, probably nothing reveals a person\u2019s bias more than the claim that Obama was qualified, but Palin is not.\u00a0 Granted, there are people who think neither are\/were qualified, a position bolster as Obama\u2019s lack of experience has become clear in his handling of the presidency. Still, they are not really comparable as Obama had no executive experience, while Palin has a good record, even if a somewhat limited one.<\/p>\n
But ultimately people do not vote for President based on resumes.\u00a0\u00a0 If we assume for the moment that Palin does run, she will be judged on how she runs her campaign.\u00a0\u00a0 To be sure, she will have to overcome the extremely negative press bias against her.\u00a0 If she is unable to do that, she will not even win the nomination.<\/p>\n
Right now most of her critics view her through the lens of the Couric interview and Saturday Night Live skits.\u00a0 In fact, for many Tina Fey is Sarah Palin. But if she does run, people will begin to see her, not Fey.\u00a0 She will have to be very careful not to play into her critic\u2019s image, but she has shown an ability to go over the heads of the press connect and with voters not seen since Reagan.\u00a0 So while the vicious press coverage, and sheer hatred of her on the left, means she will start out in a hole, she has, at least potentially, \u00a0the tools to overcome this and go on to victory. It is important to remember that President Carter wanted to run against Reagan because the Democrats bought into their own political rhetoric and believed that he was, in Speaker O\u2019Neil words, an \u201camiable dunce.\u201d<\/p>\n
So if Sarah Palin runs, she could win, but it is still only a maybe.\u00a0 The simple fact is that there are four main factors in any Presidential election: The candidates, their campaigns, the mood of the people, and events. \u00a0For the sake of argument let\u2019s assume the candidates are Obama and Palin and both will run good campaigns, as both have run winning campaigns in the past and no one sets out to run a bad one.<\/p>\n
As for events, they are really unknowable.\u00a0 After all, one of McCain\u2019s strongest points and probably the reason he won the nomination was his strength in foreign policy and military affairs.\u00a0 While known as a budget hawk, he himself admitted that he was weak on the economy.\u00a0 Following the conventions, McCain was in the lead, and so he looked like a good choice.\u00a0 Then the markets locked up, and TARP shifted the focus to economics, McCain\u2019s weak area, and the campaign was lost. What will the events be around 2012? No one knows.<\/p>\n
That brings us to the mood of the people, while also unknowable and subject to events; this will be the real key for Sarah Palin\u2019s chances. Right now the mood is very much anti-Washington, anti-big government. It is also likely to stay this way, as with a divided government there is not much prospect for change.\u00a0 This is a perfect spot for Sarah Palin, and she does seem to be positioning herself as a real outsider candidate.\u00a0 On the other hand, if the mood changes, she could be running as the outsider when people are looking for an insider who can \u201cget things done.\u201d<\/p>\n
So can Sarah Palin win?\u00a0 Certainly, but like everyone else, she has some advantages and some disadvantages, and for her to win will take a lot of hard work, a lot of skill, and ultimately some luck.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As 2012 begins to come onto the horizon,\u00a0 two question will take on increasing importance for Republicans,\u00a0 will Sarah Palin run for President, and possibly more important, can she win.\u00a0\u00a0 The first is really up to Sarah Palin.\u00a0 She is the one that will ultimately make the decision one way or the other. On the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,28],"tags":[104,119,125,2001,598,736,862,919,934,1008,1030,1149,1241],"class_list":["post-565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-major-media","category-politics","tag-alaska","tag-anti-big-government","tag-anti-washington","tag-foreign-policy","tag-governor","tag-john-mccain","tag-military","tag-newt-gingrich","tag-obama","tag-political-savvy","tag-president","tag-sarah-palin","tag-tarp"],"yoast_head":"\n