How Bush Could Lose Part II: Foreign Policy

The War on Terror will dominate here. If Iraq continues on it present course this will be a plus for Bush in November, but this is an unstable region and things could still go very badly. But this could go in a politically disastrous direct for either side, we could for example, have some major success in stabilizing Iraq and get bin Laden. But a significant part of the outcome is out of our control, so for the sake of argument, I will consider events to be a wash for either side and focus more on the policy.

While one of Bush strongest areas, even here the democrats could trump Bush. Currently the Democrats are in a could of/should of mode, focusing on supposed errors Bush made. To win in November, the nominee will have to make a serious case for what they will do now that will make people think they will do a better job if elected.

This has to be more than just going to the UN or the French for most people do not trust the UN or the French with their security. The candidate must be very clear they are representing the best interests of the US, not the best interests of the UN or the French. The other key area would be to come up with a plan for Iraq, rather than complain about it. A nominee that took an aggressive stance to strengthen the military and beef up security with specific proposals and had a plan for dealing with Iraq could at least neutralize Bush’s advantage in this area.