After New Hampshire
While I have been of the opinion that, with the exception of Ron Paul, any of the candidates could beat Obama, I am no longer so sure. As the results from New Hampshire primary come in, it is becoming increasingly clear that Romney will be the Republican nominee for president. As I wrote in a previous post, given the timing of his surge, Newt was the candidate most likely to defeat Romney. “A surge for Bachmann, Santorum, or even Paul this late in the game, will most likely only muddle the returns from the early states” and this would only benefit Romney, which is exactly what seems to be happening.
The attacks on Newt, by Romney’s and Paul’s, super PACs and by the Republican establishment, successfully took Newt out. But they also had some unintended consequences that may come back to haunt Republicans. For one they unleashed a negative tone in what till now has been a surprising positive campaign, and this has generated a lot of anger, particularly at Romney. While this not unusual following a primary fight, Romney may have a somewhat more difficult time mending fences, as this is not a normal year.
For many conservatives Romney is the establishment moderate, who is only talking conservative to get the nomination, just like so many others before him. Given that the distrust of the Republican establishment is at records highs, many conservatives will be waiting for signs that Romney is “moving to the middle” as an indication that their fears about him were true. Still this is manageable, particularly if Romney campaigns as a conservative as strongly after he secures the nomination as before.
More troubling is that taking down Newt did not answer the problems many conservatives have with Romney and that left a vacuum that has been filled by Ron Paul. It is still highly unlikely that Paul will get the nomination, however, his strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire greatly increases the chances that Paul will run third party, thereby ensuring an Obama victory. While Paul was always going to stay in the race till the end, he would have been relegated to unimportance. Having come in second in New Hampshire, his campaign is now, not too surprisingly calling on the other candidates, “to unite by getting out of the race and uniting behind Paul’s candidacy.” Perhaps Ron Paul will get his chance only to be firmly and soundly rejected. On the other hand, Democrats and the MSM now have a clear and variable Operation Chaos candidate.
It is pretty clear that the Democrats have been planning for a long time to run against Romney. In fact it is highly likely that the entire Occupy Wall Street movement was created specifically for that purpose. Tarnish Wall Street as the 1% that caused our problems, pit the 99% against the 1%, and then tie Romney to the 1% because of his work at Bain. The fact that most of Wall Street supports Democrats is irrelevant, for in politics perception is reality. So you will have Obama, railing against the injustices of Wall Street, while putting Romney and the Republicans in the position of defending all the “greed” and “abuse.” This would be just one more in a very long line of setups designed to make Republicans look bad.
More importantly, many conservatives have a blind spot when it comes to “Wall Street.” They seemingly assume that since it is business, it must be capitalism and thus ok. The simple fact is that there are some pretty legitimate problems, problems that conservative not only fail to see; they mistakenly even defend. While the Left’s distortions of “the rich” and “corporate greed” etc., are mostly incorrect, mostly is not completely. There is just enough truth in them that conservative’s blanket defenses often ring hollow.
This is why the Democrats want Romney. They can at least see a path to victory through Wall Street. While I do not think such a strategy will be successful, it is at least a clear strategy, and it does have a chance, particularly if the media can get the focus off Obama, and onto Romney. If the election is about Wall Street and Romney, Obama will win.
But now Democrats have another option over the next several months. With Paul’s second place victory, they can build him up as the alternative to Romney. While it is almost certain to fail, from their point of view, it can do nothing but good. Paul makes Romney look more establishment, and thus easier to tie to Wall Street. In addition, the longer Paul remains a viable candidate, the more likely it is that he will run third party. Should a miracle occur and Paul gets the nomination, it would be the equivalent of Nixon getting to run against McGovern in 1972.
The best thing that can happen now is for the non-Romney forces to unite behind a candidate that can take second place and render Paul a distant third. Even if it happened, it is unlikely to keep Romney from getting the nomination, but a third place Paul, is less likely to run third party. Yet this raises the thorny issue of which candidate should be the non-Romney/non-Paul candidates to rally behind?
This is why I am no longer quite as certain about November.
