Election 2026

It is now one week since the election, and the initial joy/depression has had time to pass. Lord Randolph Churchill gave a speech in 1884 entitled “Trust the People.” It impacted his son, Winston, and guided his life. It is something I try to reflect on with every election, win or lose.   This was clearly a major loss for Republicans. The people have spoken, and we would do well to listen. But what happened? What did the people say that we are to trust?  

One thing is becoming clear, despite the experts’ claims going into the election, is that this was not a base election.   The Democrats won because many people who voted for Republicans in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. If anything, this is the trend.   Many who voted for Trump in 2024 had voted for Biden in 2020. Many who voted for Biden in 2020 had voted for Trump in 2016, and many who voted for Trump in 2016 had voted for Obama in 2012.

Elections are won by securing your base and winning independents. For a long time, both parties focused mainly on securing their base and getting them to the polls. In fact, it is possible that this flipping between the parties would have included 2012 except for, as Hugh Hewitt put it: Sandy, Candy and Orca. Sandy was Hurricane Sandy that struck before the election and gave Obama a lot of positive coverage for his handling. Candy was Candy Crowley, the moderator of the Presidential Debate, who ran cover for Obama by incorrectly fact-checking Romney in the middle of the debate. As for Orca, that was the then-new Republican get-out-the-vote software that failed miserably on election day. Whether Hewitt was correct in his analysis or not, Orca’s inclusion in the top three reasons for the loss shows how important get-out-the-vote efforts were perceived to be.

If we are to trust the people, what can we learn from this flip-flopping between parties, election after election? The lesson both parties have taken recently is clear, as those who win claim ‘We have a mandate.’  When politicians campaign on specific policies, this can be true. In 2024, Trump ran on closing the border, which he did, and in exit polls that was one of the few areas where Republicans had a lead. But politicians often take a legitimate mandate for a particular policy and assume it applies to all their policies. Thus, what was the mandate this year? Will it change again in two years?

Are the people really that fickle? I think not. I believe a more rational conclusion is that people don’t like what is happening and want change. That was the heart of Obama’s campaign in 2008. But change to what? It is not what either party is currently offering.

Clearly, voters did not like the war and particularly the inflation it caused. But should Democrats take this as a mandate for all their policies? Even if that were true, which ones? Democrats ran mainly against Trump; they opposed whatever he did. Beyond that, it was largely slogans, not policies. They ran on affordability and against the war. Yet the war is largely over, replaced by a naval blockade, and prices were coming down even before the election, so what exactly can they do in 3 months once they take over Congress?  

As for affordability, that is a slogan, not a policy. To act on that, they’ll need a policy. What will it be? Given the recent strong GDP and job numbers, they are more likely to mess things up than improve things. That was at least the thinking on Wall Street with its post-election losses, the worst post-election performance since 1896.

I think there is a way to understand this and other recent elections that is consistent from election to election and doesn’t leave people as fickle, uneducated, duped, etc. People are unhappy with the partisanship and just want government to work, and work for them. This is seen in the growing numbers of people who are not Republicans or Democrats, but Independents.

What does this mean for 2028? Currently, it is unclear. For one, since Democrats ran on slogans, not policies, it is unclear what they will do. Many Democrats ran as moderates, and they make up the party’s majority. However, the far Left/DSA gains a lot of seats, some by defeating moderates in the primaries. Then again, politicians are not always honest, and how they campaign is not necessarily how they govern. Many think they have a mandate. Which side will win? That is currently unknown, as are the policies the winners will push. It is not even certain who will be in leadership positions. These intra-party fights will play out over the next few months.

One cautionary note for the far Left was the ballot measures in many states. States, including Colorado and Washington, passed bans on biological men in women’s sports, contrary to the far-Left positions. Despite all the calls to tax the rich, even California rejected a wealth tax on billionaires.  

Democrats would do well to remember the history of midterm losses. Republicans suffered a huge midterm loss under Reagan in 1982, as did Democrats under Clinton in 1994 and Obama in 2010. All went on to win reelection two years later, Reagan winning 49 states. As for impeachment and endless investigations, they have never been popular except with the base, who normally end up disappointed.

On the Republican side, there seems to be a reasonable understanding of why they lost. Despite his claims, and even though he wasn’t on the ballot, much of this does trace back to Trump. Last spring, I said I thought Trump’s rhetorical skills were mismatched to this election, and that turned out to be true. However, if anything is going to happen, his last two years will be negotiating with the Democrats, and here Trump is at his best. He literally wrote the book on it.   His post-election comments and shakeup reveal he is getting ready. 

The real question is whether he will have enough people on the other side willing to negotiate with him. In his first term, Democrats refused to work with him; has that changed? Some moderates will, and Senator-elect Talarico has said since the election that he is looking forward to working with the President. Still others in the Far Left/DSA wing have not expressed the same willingness. Some on the far-Left have said they want blood.

I think the real lesson of this election is to trust the people, and to trust them, you first must listen to them and see what they really want. The politician who does that in 2028 will do well.