Did Prop 187 Destroy the Republican Party?
Jeb Bush and Ken Mehlman in the Wall Street Journal argue that Prop 187 destroyed the Republican party in California. As someone who was active in California politics at the time, I think their analysis ignores several key factors, the most important being the internal struggle that existed in the party at the time, and the influence of the previous two Republican governors, George Deukmejian (1993 – 1991), and Pete Wilson (1991-1999). Their example should serve as a warning to other Republicans.
In brief Deukmejian kept very close control over the party and its resources, which while it allowed him to be reelected, also limited the ability of others to win statewide office, and thus the development of potential successors. Thus when he left office there really was nobody to take his place but Pete Wilson who had left the Senate to do so. Still, we had Pete Wilson, so it was not that much of a problem.
However Pete Wilson brought what he called “compassionate conservatism.” What this really amounted to was a proposed $15 Billion increase in state spending, while trying to run conservatives out of the party. Eventually he made a deal that “cut spending” by $7.5 billon so he only needed a $7.5 billion dollar tax increase, which included the infamous “Snack Tax” which was quickly repealed angry voters.
If this was not enough, rather than holding out an olive branch to conservatives and unifying the party by appointing someone like Bruce Hershenson to fill his empty senate seat, Wilson made an in-your-face appointment of John Seymour, further angering conservatives. Things were so bad that when Seymour ran for reelection in 1992, the Republican party had trouble meeting in fear that the party would condemn their own candidate. Not too surprisingly – he lost.
Frankly if 187 did anything, it helped revive the Republican party, and Pete Wilson saw his poll number increase with the proposition. In addition the proposition passed with strong support. But then the courts overturned it. This combined with several other propositions that were overturned caused many people to ask “What the point of voting?”
This was compounded by rampant voter fraud, such as when Bob Dornan lost his house seat as a result of illegal aliens voting, fraud which was never prosecuted. Then Republican office holders in the state decided that it was better for them to make deals with the Democrats so as to guarantee a safe seat in redistricting. As a result politicians in California now effectively pick their voters, rather than the other way around. Republican Presidential candidates also write off the state, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
As a result of the decline in the state, and the rise of liberal regulation, overcrowding, rampant illegal immigration (In San Bernardino, a old Sam’s Club location recently was turned into a large store catering to those who speak Spanish) many Republican voters began to write the state off and those who could started leaving. (It’s a prime reason I am no longer in California).
The problems of California are very similar to the problems of the Republican party nationally. While Bush has been ok on the war, he has been marginal at best, and often poor on domestic policy. Frankly it was my experience with Pete Wilson that caused me concern when Bush also ran on “compassionate conservatism.”
As a general rule, when Republicans run on a upbeat and positive conservative message that expresses hope for what this country could be if government would get out of the way, we win. When we run with apologies for being conservative and promise to be sort of Democrat-Lite we lose. Yet too many Republican politicians never seem to learn this simple lesson.
