Stimulus Plan?
As Obama puts his mark onto the presidency he continues to enjoy high approval ratings, but cracks are beginning to appear. That the stakes are very high as can been seen in an article in the Christian Science Monitor. The headline warned of “risks to opponents” of the stimulus plan, and most of the article was written in terms of the 2010 elections.
For example, the article claims “Obama’s plan is popular in the 13 states that are expected to have competitive races for US Senate in 2010.” Furthermore Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg, who conducted the poll, said, “I think the message of having zero Republicans voting for the plan was an immense error,” and “I think it will be seared in peoples’ consciousness.”
It is always gives me the warm fuzzies to have Democrats so worried about the welfare of Republicans. But the simple fact is that looking at polls on how people view the stimulus plan now, so as to divine how they might vote in 2010, is not only meaningless, it is down right silly. This is because how people vote in 2010 will be based on conditions in 2010.
Now I oppose the so-called stimulus bill for one very simple reason, I do not think it will work and will in fact make things worse, probably a lot worse. One of the things that bothers me the most is how the major media just lets Democrats make things up, such and the claim that this is the worst economic situation since the Depression. Things are certainly bad, but it is just a matter of record that things can be and have been a lot worse, even since the depression.
The Misery Index is measurement of how bad things are, and is a combination of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. It is currently at 7.29%, and likely to go higher. But for example, it is still lower than most of the post war period. In January 1968 it was 7.35% and rose to 21.98% in June of 1980. It did not drop down below our current level again until July 1997.
Now the current rate is so low because the inflation rate had dropped to virtually nothing. If we look at simply the unemployment rate by itself, it is currently 7.2 percent. While high, it was higher in early 1990s, and through most of the 1970s and early 1980s, peaking out at 10.8 percent. So when they say this is the worst economy in 50 years, or the worst economy since the great depression, Democrats are simply making things up.
Unfortunately the Democrats have created somewhat of a trap for themselves and more importantly for us. While certainly not the entire picture, a key aspect of any economy is confidence. This is particular true in the current downturn as a large part of the current problem is a loss of confidence in the financial markets. Thus Bush and McCain were correct, at least economically, to try to reassure people about the underlying health of the economy. But the Democrats seeing an issue, pounced and portrayed them as out of touch and not understanding people’s pain. It was to the Democrats’ advantage politically to paint the economy as worse than what it really was, and it worked.
The problem is when people have a negative outlook about the economy, they hold back on spending. As more and more people and companies hold back, the economy slows down even further, causing even additional problems, which then cause people to hold back even more. The economy enters into a downward spiral.
Unfortunately Obama is still talking down the economy. Perhaps it is because he sees it as being in his own interest to scare people about how bad things are, as it will help him pass his programs; or perhaps he believes the current problems will be blamed on Bush rather than on him; or perhaps because of his inexperience, he simply does not know any better. Whatever the reason, His doom and gloom rhetoric is certainly not helping things.
His alleged stimulus package may be popular at the moment, and people are understandably willing to give the new President the benefit of the doubt, but this will not last forever. When 2010 comes people will not be focused on how Republicans did or did not support support the Stimulus package unless it fails. If it succeeds, the the economy will be doing very well and people will be focused on other issues and Obama and the democrats will get the credit regardless of any Republican support or lack thereof. The only way the people will really focus on the stimulus package, is if it fails, especially if it is seen as making things much worse.
Given that the CBO says that only about 20% of stimulus plan dollars will even be spent this year, it is not likely to have much of a stimulus, at least any time soon. Spending dollars years from now is hardly likely to help the current problem. Perhaps the reason Democrats are so worried about the Republicans’ lack of support, is that they will be held completely responsible for the stimulus plan they wrote and passed.
